A new study forecasts between 35,000 to 70,000 British deaths from coronavirus, the Financial Times reported on Monday, amid growing demands the government take immediate action to try to reduce the death toll.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson's government must "do more in the pursuit of suppressing the epidemic whether through enforced lockdowns or enforced social distancing rather than voluntary measures," the newspaper quoted the team of clinicians, statisticians and epidemiologists behind the unpublished study.
The group of scientists, drawn from University College London, the University of Cambridge and Health Data Research UK, are the latest of dozens of medical experts to appeal to the government to order an immediate lockdown and massively expand virus testing programmes.
Chief among their concerns is the government's slow response and failure to heed the advice of Asian nations and the World Health Organization (WHO) to engage in contact tracing and large-scale testing of front-line health workers.
Shunmay Yeung, a paediatrician specializing in infectious disease and global health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said the failure to follow WHO advice had impacted "very negatively" on Britain's ability to control the spread of the virus.
"We have very little idea about what is going on in the community," Yeung told dpa. "I, like others, cannot understand the rationale behind the decision."
Devi Sridhar, chair of global public health at Edinburgh University Medical School, tweeted on Monday that she understood "all the reasons for testing and contact tracing" and for following the example of South Korea.
"I don’t understand why mass testing and contact tracing with isolation is not being pursued in the UK?" Sridhar wrote, adding that "WHO seems to hint this is a strategic decision not a capacity issue."
Shunmay agreed that "there is lots that Britain and other Western nations could be learning" from the experience of East Asia.
In a video message to the public, Julia Courtney, a respiratory consultant in the Ulster Hospital in Northern Ireland, said it was "hard to actually convey just the enormity of the crisis that is looming for the NHS, and so for everyone, in the next few weeks."
"Huge numbers of people will die and the only thing that will have any impact on this impending catastrophe is slowing the spread of this virus," Courtney said.
Johnson initially made light of the impact of Covid-19 on Britain, insisting he would still shake hands with people and saying he had shaken hands with coronavirus patients during a hospital visit.
He accepted advice from the government's chief scientist to build "herd immunity" to the virus while protecting the most vulnerable people.
Other experts warned that approach could cost the lives of tens of thousands, perhaps even hundreds of thousands, of elderly people.
Under public pressure, Johnson closed schools from Monday and encouraged people to work at home and avoid pubic transport.
He ordered pubs, cafes, restaurants and entertainment venues to suspend most business.
In a letter published in Saturday's Times newspaper, several leading health experts warned that Britain was "losing a very small window of opportunity to minimize the disease burden from Covid-19 and prevent a health system collapse."
The experts urged the government to impose a lockdown and implement "extensive case finding and contact tracing to reduce community spread to give time for the health system to prepare and cope."
Rosena Allin-Khan, an opposition Labour lawmaker and a hospital emergency doctor in London, told the BBC on Monday that there was a "very real sense that the number of cases are growing and they are growing very, very quickly."
"If we look at the fact that we are two weeks behind Italy, we are headed for a disaster if people do not heed the social-distancing measures," Allin-Khan said.
"The prime minister simply said [on Sunday] he wants people to enjoy themselves outside, while also saying that people should stay 2 metres apart outdoors," she said.
"This relaxed style [and] mixed messaging will cost lives and I believe people are struggling to follow guidelines because they are just not clear."
