Donald Trump currently has a lead with 246 voters, compared to 182 for Kamala Harris. To become president, 270 voters are needed, with the New York Times putting Donald Trump's probability of victory at 95% and Polymarket, perhaps the most famous election betting player, giving him 97.2% chances to win the presidency.
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Topline Former President Donald Trump has continued to surge on betting sites into early Wednesday morning, with bettors becoming increasingly confident of a Trump electoral win—despite most of the major swing states still tallying votes.
Polymarket: Perhaps the most famous election betting player, the blockchain-based site still leaned toward Trump after the first closures, giving him 97.2% implied odds of victory compared to Harris’ 3% as of just after 12:50 a.m. EST Wednesday.
Kalshi: The New York-based prediction platform favors Trump by a 95% to 5% margin, a major shift from Saturday, when Harris briefly led on the site; unlike Polymarket, Kalshi legally operates in the U.S., as do rival PredictIt and brokerages Robinhood and Interactive Brokers.
PredictIt: The site tilting most strongly toward Harris still favored Trump at 12:50 a.m., with PredictIt pricing at 95% to 9% for Trump.
Robinhood/Interactive Brokers: The retail trading giant is the newest major entrant into election betting—and, like Interactive Brokers, offers election betting via ForecastEx—and gives Trump about a 95% win probability compared to 4% for his Democratic opponent.
Betfair and Smarkets: The London-based sites are not open to Americans, but both assign similar chances of a Trump win, with Betfair favoring the Republican by a 97% to 3% margin and Smarkets by a 97% to 2% tilt.
Odds around the time of the first major poll closures at 6 p.m. EST were roughly 60% for Trump and 40% for Harris on high-profile betting platforms.
95.5%. That’s the betting market’s aggregated odds for a Trump victory as of 12:50 a.m. EST, according to the Election Betting Odds tool, which tracks odds across Betfair, Kalshi, PredictIt, Polymarket and Smarkets.
What Do Other Indicators Say?
The New York Times live presidential forecast said just after midnight Wednesday that it considered Trump “likely” to win the election, with a 95% chance of victory.
Which states does Trump win so far?
According to Associated Press projections, Trump wins the states of North Carolina, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Utah, Montana, Nebraska, Texas, Ohio, North Dakota, South Dakota, Louisiana, Wyoming, Nebraska, Florida (30 voters), South Carolina (9 voters), Tennessee (10 voters), Oklahoma (7 voters). Mississippi (6 voters), Alabama (9 voters), West Virginia (13 voters), Kentucky (8 voters) and Indiana (11 voters).
What states go to Kamala Harris?
Kamala Harris, based on the same projections, leads in Virginia, New Mexico, Oregon, California, Washington, Colorado, New Jersey, New York, Illinois (19 voters), Delaware, Massachusetts (11 voters), Connecticut (7 voters), Rhode Island, Maryland and Vermont (3 voters)
The bet is expected to be decided in the so-called swing states: Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada, although based on the results so far Donald Trump seems to win at least 5 of them.
Trump has already won North Carolina and Georgia and has a lead in 4 other states, including Pennsylvania.
